A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
