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Only two days before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – going beyond who would win citywide, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the tally frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes added after that and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president previously backed Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So I don’t think certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because then none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. The independent held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on the island with a high participation. I think occurred significant tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. So there was some opposition. However no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.