Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
