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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

However the current competition is distinctly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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